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Orient phaseInformation Filtering

Base rate fallacy

Definition

The tendency to ignore base rate information (generic, general information) and focus on specific information (information only pertaining to a certain case).

Classification reasoning

The information gathered from the observe phase is subject to processing and interpretation during the orient phase. It is common to filter out and focus on specific information during the orient phase due to various reasons such as too much information, time pressure, cognitive limitations and other reasons.

Example

Microservice vs Monolith architecture: The tradeoffs must be carefully considered when deciding between a microservice and a monolith architecture. For example, from the view point of reliability, microservices have an advantage over monolith since the failure of one microservice will not bring down the entire setup.

Impact

In the above example, if the decision is to be taken purely based on the reliability factor alone, then microservices is the way forward. However, when setting up a software architecture, there are multiple factors aside from just reliability such as availability, complexity, management, deployment and others. Decisions taken by purely focusing on just a few aspects might have an adverse effect in the future.

Debiasing techniques

Ensure that all the parameters are listed down initially. Rank the parameters based on the requirements which then sets up a sounds rationality for the decide phase.

Related biases

  • Anchoring and Adjustment
  • Focusing Effect